Breaking Down Some Super Bowl Prop Bets

Who scores first? Who wins MVP? How long will Luke Bryan take and more.

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Super Bowl viewers can be broken down into the following categories:

Fans of one of the teams playing
Football fans (diehard)
Football fans (casual)
Football fans (pedestrian)
Fans of social gatherings
People reading magazines in the room where the game is on

Besides being viewers of the Super Bowl, there is one thing that the majority of these people have in common. They have money on the game. Now this can range from degenerate gamblers wagering way more than they should be to someone at work, throwing in a couple bucks in an office pool and hoping the score of the first half ends in a two. Putting some loot on the game is a great way to manufacture caring if you find that you don’t that much. I think that’s one of the reasons why fantasy football has gotten so popular. People also like pressing buttons and feeling like they are in charge of something. You know, like our President.

This year I was asked to join in on a prop bets pool for Super Bowl 51. Or more specifically a MEGA Prop Bets Pool. If you’re now asking yourself or someone next to you, what’s a prop bet, I’ll refer to this definition from The Spread:

What are Proposition or Prop Bets?

Prop bets are similar to future bets, but instead of wagering on the future of a team, the wager is made on an individual player or event. Sports books will describe a scenario and place odds on that scenario actually happening. Prop bets can be placed on anything from how many goals, runs or touchdowns certain players will score to which team will score the first in a specific game, etc.

Or you can just take my word for it when I just say that prop bets are randomly proposed occurrences during a game that you can wager on. For example, who scores first, how many times do they bring up the show Atlanta, will Joe Buck drop a F bomb air, etc. Let’s check out some of the prop bets in this MEGA Prop Bets Pool.

Will the Coin Flip Come Up Heads or Tails?

I went with heads. And dude, I actually did a Google search looking into a history of coin flips in the Super Bowl. Did you know it’s been tails for three straight years and before that, it was heads for five straight years? I think heads are due. It’s heads’ time! Or tails. Whatever. I pick heads.

Who Wins the Coinflip?

Uh, the Patriots. Why? Because it’s also the Pats’ time! So if you’re keeping track, it’s heads’ time, but it’s also the Patriots’ time.

Image result for luke bryan bow hunting

The Length of the National Anthem

Country singer Luke Bryan is singing the anthem and the choices are him taking less than two minutes and fifteen seconds and more than two minutes and fifteen seconds. I did some more research and he generally hovers a shade under two minutes when performing the anthem. Last year Lady Gaga, who is this year’s Super Bowl performer, clocked in around two minutes and ten seconds. I mean, you have to factor in some stretch time and some milking the moment time. Yet even with that, there’s no way Bryan goes longer than two minutes and fifteen seconds.

How Many Times Will Deflategate Be Mentioned During the Broadcast?

Ugh, fucking zero? Yes, if I had my way. Actually, I’d like it to be mentioned just once. When Roger Goodell is handing over the MVP trophy to Tom Brady and Joe Buck says something along the lines of “now that’s how you get some gosh darn revenge after that Deflategate bullshit.” But seeing as how this is for some cash money, I’ll go with more than 2.5 times. And each time I’ll drink a beer, getting surlier with each swig.

How Many Commercials Will Peyton Manning Appear in During the Broadcast (between the kickoff and final whistle?)

The choice is either less than 1.5 or more than 1.5. This is a no-brainer. There’s going to be at least two Papa John’s commercials and since this prop doesn’t say anything about it being a different commercial, this is easy money, son.

How Many Times Will “Gronk” or “Gronkowski” Be Said on TV During the Broadcast?

Over 3, under 3? I say over. I think the Pats are going to put up points and as soon as they break 20, there will be plenty of opportunities for Buck and Troy Aikman to point out the Pats are doing it all without their best player that isn’t named Tom Football Brady.

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Lady Gaga Will Play “The Edge of Glory” First?

Uh, no? Maybe? Going with no but with absolutely no conviction or confidence.

Lady Gaga Performs “Poker Face” During Halftime

Oh, heck yeah she does. And when she does, I will fondly think back to a night in Atlantic City not so long ago; a weekend away with my wife before she was my wife and we watched in absolute glee and delight a southern New Jersey bar band rip off hard rock covers of pop songs, one of which was “Poker Face” and ever since that night, whenever I hear “Poker Face,” I only hear that southern New Jersey bar band’s singer growling the chorus in the most grizzly effin’ way imaginable.

Total Number of Penalties By Each Team?

I went with under 12.5. I’d like to think the zebras will let the kids play.

First Score Will Be a Touchdown?

No. It’ll be a field goal or a safety. Safeties are surprisingly common in Super Bowls, especially early on. Atlanta might be a little shook on their first drive and you know, maybe something weird happens.

First Team to Punt Will Be…?

The Falcons. See above for reasoning.

Who Passes for More Yards: Brady or Matt Ryan?

Matt Ryan. The Pats will give him all he wants in between the 20’s. I also think the Pats will try and run a lot.

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Longest Reception by Atlanta’s Julio Jones Will Be…?

Under 25.5 yards. New England’s defense typically doesn’t give up big plays. It’s kind of been a thing of theirs all year long. I mean, if anyone were to spit in the face of that factoid it’d be Jones. But for the time being, I’m going with under.

The Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game Will Be…?

More than 46.5 yards or less than 46.5 yards? Hmm. In a dome, no wind or elements. The inclination to pick the over is strong like bull, smart like tractor. But I’m taking the under and I have no real reason why.

Who is Leading at the End of the First Quarter?

Ha, please.

New-England-Patriots-Tom-Brady2

Who is Leading at the End of the First Half?

Again, come on.

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The Over/Under for the Final Score Combined?

The over/under is now 59.5. That’s a lot of points, especially for a Super Bowl. Super Bowls are not typically super high scoring games. 59.5 points is a lot. The Seahawks put up 43 in their win over the Bronocos in Super Bowl 48, but the Broncos only had 8, so they wouldn’t have even hit that number. The last time game to eclipse 60 points was Super Bowl 47, when the Ravens beat the 49ers 34-31. I definitely think a score like that is possible, but I just don’t see it and I’m taking the under. And yes, I again did some research. Because I care.

What Will Be Higher on Sunday?

The choices:

  1. Steph Curry of the Warriors’ points and assists
  2. The combined first half points of Super Bowl 51

If either offense does start to pop off in the game, it’ll be in the third quarter. I’m going with Steph. I’m not even going to look and see who the Warriors are playing. #confidence

The Patriots Will Win by 3 Points

A little background here:

  • Super Bowl XXXVI: Patriots 20, St. Louis Rams 17
  • Super Bowl XXXVIII: Patriots 32, Carolina Panthers 29
  • Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots 24, Philadelphia Eagles 21
  • Super Bowl XLII: New York Giants 17, Patriots 14
  • Super Bowl XLVI: New York Giants 21, Patriots 17
  • Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24

The Patriots keep it close in the Super Bowl. So by taking the over, you’re siding with the side of an uncommon occurrence. Every Pats’ Super Bowl victory has been by three points except for one. Buuuuuut, it was the last one. So, maybe? Yes, maybe. I’m taking the over and I am 100% cool with that choice. I think the Pats win by 10.

Who Wins the MVP?

Your choices are Tom Brady/Matt Ryan or the field. I’m going out on a limb here and taking the field. Dion Lewis could have a big game. Same with Julio Jones. I can’t see a wide receiver for the Pats taking it unless it’s Edelman and that’d only be if he were to run a kickoff or punt back for a touchdown. Shit man, Malcolm Butler won the game for the Patriots in Super Bowl 49, but Brady still won the award. So am I being foolish taking the field? Yes. I’m changing my pick and taking Brady/Ryan.

What Color Gatorade Will Be Dumped on the Winning Coach?

You can pick yellow/orange or other/none. I’m going with other and I have no basis for explaining this choice. I like blue Gatorade, specifically Glacier Freeze. There are two times in life when a cold Gatorade is the best thing in the world. One is on a hot summer day and you’ve been doing some work. And two is when you’re hungover. Gatorade tastes terrible, absolutely terrible, if you drink it within fifteen minutes of brushing your teeth. That’s a fact. Also a fact? The Patriots are going to win this game.

Right, Tom?

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